ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit watched Purdue dismantle then-No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 on Saturday, and knows the tone of the questions coming out of Columbus in the aftermath of that loss.
Herbstreit, however, knows it’s best to keep an open mind with Ohio State heading into bye week and a November that will be pivotal for coach Urban Meyer. Will the College Football Playoff committee be able to look past that 29-point loss later?
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“It depends on how much the committee would see it and say, ‘Wow, that big loss in West Lafayette keeps Ohio State down,’” Herbstreit told Sporting News. “It depends on how they finish and how impressive they look down the stretch. They’re certainly on the outside looking in at this point.”
Herbstreit knows what happened last season. Ohio State’s 55-24 loss at Iowa was one of the talking points that led to the Big Ten champions being left out and eventual national champion Alabama (which didn’t play in the SEC title game) being let in the Playoff. How much does that margin of defeat matter?
Here is a look at the losses of every Playoff semifinalist since 2014.
The average loss is by 7.9 points per game, and Georgia has the biggest loss with a 23-point margin. Of course, that was on the road against a top-10 team, and the Bulldogs got revenge against Auburn in the SEC championship game. Ohio State’s better — and perhaps only bet — is to win out and take the Big Ten championship by going through No. 5 Michigan and whoever wins the Big Ten West. That might create an interesting scenario with the Big 12 should Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame win out, Herbstreit said.
“What it would leave you is (the) Texas-Oklahoma winner in the Big 12 championship vs. potentially the winner of Ohio State and/or Michigan in that debate,” Herbstreit said. “That’s what I think could potentially happen.”
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To get to that point, Ohio State has a lot of issues to fix. Dwayne Haskins attempted 73 passes in the loss to Purdue. Running backs Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins combined for 69 yards on 20 carries. Meyer typically preaches being a “250/250” offense, but right now Ohio State averages 383.8 yards passing and 171.8 yards rushing.
“Offensively, I think it’s a mindset,” Herbstreit said. “They’ve become a finesse offense with Dwayne Haskins and the receivers, and they’ve become one-dimensional. It wouldn’t surprise me at all, knowing Urban Meyer, if they try to get back to being more physical at the line of scrimmage. That will fall on the offensive line.”
The defense, meanwhile, ranks 44th in the FBS in scoring defense (22.9 points per game) and 70th in total yards (391 ypg). The loss of Nick Bosa for the season is one issue, along with too many big plays allowed on the back end. The Boilermakers exposed that with three touchdowns of 40 yards or more in the fourth quarter on Saturday.
“The linebackers are out of position and many times walked up to the line of scrimmage pre-snap and almost taking themselves out of the play because they can’t scrape left to right against the run,” Herbstreit said. “The safeties, then, are taking a lot of poor angles in run support. Instead of a gain or 8 or 10 yards where the safeties are out of position, it’s a 50-yard touchdown. That’s going since TCU, and it’s something they’re going to have to figure out.”
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Despite all that, Herbstreit believes Ohio State can get back to physical play with Meyer, and the bye week should help with injuries along the defensive line. The Buckeyes return to action Nov. 3 against Nebraska and still control their Big Ten destiny — however cloudy it looks now.
“Ohio State is sitting down at No. 11 but most of the teams ahead of them are going to play in a game where somebody is going to have to lose,” Herbstreit said. “There’s a very good chance that if Ohio State can right the ship and win out, then they would be in a position to get back into the discussion for that final spot.”
Herbstreit continues to work with Allstate and interacts with fans as part of the “Allstate Mayhem Moment of the Week.” Allstate also ran a survey ahead of the season that found 41 percent of college football fans have cried out of a frustration because of a loss, among other statistics. “It’s going great. Mayhem is a big part of the Allstate brand, and they’ve decided to bring it into college football, and obviously college football is all about Mayhem. They did a really good job with this survey,” Herbstreit said.
