The Knicks (12-22 SU, 14-20 ATS) have been a different team since Carmelo Anthony returned from injury, but face a big jump up in competition when the Heat visit Madison Square Garden.
Line: Miami -8, Total: 196.5
The Knicks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS since Anthony came back from his ankle injury, including wins at San Antonio (105-101) and Dallas (92-80) as big underdogs. They were whitewashed in the three prior games he sat out, losing by an average margin of 18.7 points.
Anthony (26.3 PPG) is the only consistent threat for a Knicks team that ranks just 25th in scoring (94.9 PPG). He also loves facing the Heat, averaging 37.3 PPG in the three games he played against them last year, most recently a 50-point effort in Miami last April.
New York has a big concern with Tyson Chandler (illness) doubtful after missing last game (89-85 home win over Detroit). He is a very good rim protector, and his absence really hurts defensively. Point guard Raymond Felton (groin) returned last game after missing the six before that.
The Heat (27-8 SU, 16-19 ATS) have won three-straight, covering two of them. They were just 1-5 ATS in their previous six. Starters Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers are both out, and replacement starters Norris Cole and Rashard Lewis are each a downgrade.
Chris Bosh (15.9 PPG) is Miami’s third scoring option, but he should look to draw Chandler (if he plays) away from the basket with his outside shooting. That will open up the driving lanes for LeBron James (25.5 PPG) and Dwyane Wade (19.5 PPG).
This is the first meeting this year between the Heat and Knicks. The recent matchups in the Big Apple have been lower scoring.
In the nightcap, the Thunder are playing shorthanded and have a tough test at their Northwest Division rival Nuggets.
Line: OKC -3, Total: 209
Oklahoma City (27-8 SU, 19-16 ATS) is coming off an embarrassing 112-101 loss at Utah on Tuesday, as 6-point favorites. The Jazz have played better of late, but still have the worst record in the Western Conference. Kevin Durant scored 48 points in the losing effort.
There is a lot of offensive firepower missing for OKC with shooting guard Russell Westbrook (21.3 PPG) out the last seven games, and power forward Serge Ibaka (14.1 PPG) missing the Utah game. Ibaka (illness) is questionable for Thursday.
Denver (17-17 SU, 15-19 ATS) has righted the ship by winning its last three games (2-1 ATS), coming on the heels of an eight-game losing streak (1-7 ATS).
The offense has really exploded the last two games (133 PPG), with the OVER 4-0 in Denver’s last four overall. Forward Wilson Chandler (groin) is doubtful, but this is a deep team that can withstand his loss, with Evan Fournier the likely beneficiary of more minutes.
Oklahoma City has beaten Denver twice already this season (1-1 ATS). The Nuggets will want to get into a shootout in the thin Mile High air, testing the Thunder’s young depth.
The Linemakers’ lean: The total tonight looks very manageable for these high-scoring clubs. The numbers in their last four meetings: 210, 213, 218, 217.5. That has us thinking immediately there’s value with the OVER. And with both squads trending in this direction, we’ll play OVER the 209 tonight.